Rising Cocoa Price: Can Uganda Do More Than Export Raw Beans?

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Rising Cocoa Price: Can Uganda Do More Than Export Raw Beans?

Alternative Title Suggestion: Soaring Cocoa Prices: How Uganda Can Turn Raw Beans into Golden Opportunities and Chocolate Riches

Picture the lush, green hills of Uganda’s Bundibugyo district, where farmers carefully harvest cocoa pods, their hands stained with the promise of chocolate. These beans are more than a crop—they’re a potential goldmine for Uganda, especially as cocoa prices have soared in recent years. Yet, for too long, the country has exported raw beans, reaping only a fraction of the profits that come from processing and branding. With cocoa prices reaching historic highs before stabilizing in 2025, the question is urgent: Can Uganda seize this moment to move beyond raw exports and unlock greater economic rewards?

As of August 2025, cocoa prices stand at approximately $8,000 per tonne, down from peaks exceeding $12,000 earlier this year, driven by global supply shortages and climate challenges. 16 Uganda, an emerging cocoa powerhouse in Africa, exported $68.7 million worth of beans in February 2025 alone, fueled by demand from Europe for sustainable, high-quality cocoa. 10 With production set to reach 45,000 metric tons by 2026, up from 39,000 in 2021, the opportunity to process beans into butter, powder, or artisanal chocolate could transform rural communities and boost national revenue. 21 This article explores Uganda’s cocoa landscape, the forces behind rising prices, the limitations of raw exports, and the transformative potential of value addition.

Why Are Cocoa Prices So High?

The cocoa market has been a wild ride, with prices peaking at nearly $13,000 per tonne in late 2024 and early 2025 before settling lower. The surge stemmed from a global supply crisis: West African heavyweights Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which supply over 60% of the world’s cocoa, faced devastating droughts, crop diseases like swollen shoot virus, and aging plantations, cutting output by up to 30%. 4 El Niño’s erratic weather worsened the situation, creating a deficit of 494,000 metric tons. 7 Speculative trading further inflated prices, though better rains in 2025 signal a potential recovery for the 2025/2026 season.

Uganda has reaped the benefits of this chaos. As one of Africa’s top 10 cocoa producers, the country’s output has grown steadily, thanks to its equatorial climate and fertile soils, particularly in Bundibugyo, which produces over 70% of its cocoa. 2 From March 2024 to February 2025, Uganda exported around 56,000 tonnes, generating unprecedented earnings. 12 Farmgate prices have jumped from Shs10,000 per kg to Shs25,000–31,000 in 2024, a windfall for farmers but a reminder of the volatility tied to raw exports. 2

While global chocolate demand grows—the cocoa processing market is projected to hit 6,002.91 thousand metric tons by 2034 at a 2.1% CAGR—Uganda’s reliance on raw beans limits its slice of the $22 billion global cocoa value projected by 2028. 18 22 Its prized Forastero and Trinitario beans, known for their nutty flavor, could fetch far more as processed products.

The Limits of Raw Exports

Uganda’s cocoa sector is thriving but stuck in a low-value cycle. The country exports over 30,000 tonnes annually, ranking among the world’s top 20 producers, yet nearly all as unprocessed beans, earning about $2.70 per kg at export compared to multiples more for chocolate or cocoa derivatives. 2 15 Several barriers keep Uganda tethered to this model:

  • Inadequate Infrastructure: Many farmers dry beans on the ground, risking contamination, and lack fermentation boxes or proper storage, which lowers quality and market premiums. 25
  • Policy Shortfalls: Without a dedicated cocoa policy, the sector is largely unregulated, leaving quality control to private players and missing opportunities for district-level taxation. 2
  • Limited Capital: Smallholder farmers, who make up 90% of growers, lack access to financing for processing equipment, and banks hesitate to fund agricultural ventures. 9
  • Price Volatility: The 15.6% price drop in 2025 underscores the risks of depending on global markets without hedging or diversification strategies. 4

A farmer’s lament on X captures the irony: “Many are growing Cocoa, which makes other people rich, as they remain poor themselves.” 33 While Bundibugyo farmers celebrate high prices, the real wealth flows to processors in Europe and beyond.

Unlocking Value: Opportunities in Processing

The cocoa price surge is a golden opportunity for Uganda to rethink its strategy. With capital flowing in, the country can invest in value addition to capture more of the cocoa value chain. Here’s how:

  • Local Processing Plants: A $24.9 million factory planned in Bundibugyo since August 2023 will process beans into liquor, butter, and powder, buying directly from farmers. 9 Small-scale ventures like Nile Chocolate are already producing dark chocolate, tapping a domestic market worth $8.3 million. 9
  • Government Initiatives: The National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) has distributed over 20 million seedlings since 2013, increasing production by 9%. 8 The Swiss Contact DMF project promotes fermentation and packaging to boost revenues. 20 The government aims for 50% local processing by 2030.
  • Targeting Premium Markets: The EU’s $13 billion chocolate market, growing 15% annually for single-origin products, values Uganda’s traceable, sustainable beans. Compliance with new EU deforestation rules by December 2025 could unlock higher premiums. 7 9
  • Diversification: Beyond chocolate, cocoa-based cosmetics, beverages, and even agro-tourism offer new revenue streams. Processing could triple earnings per tonne and create thousands of jobs. 9

Côte d'Ivoire’s push for local chocolate production offers a blueprint, with a 10% global supply drop in 2025 creating space for Uganda’s processed goods. 13 27

Expert Perspectives and the Road Ahead

Experts see Uganda at a crossroads. Acumen’s “Cocoa Disrupted” report urges investment in fermentation and traceability to maximize value, drawing on a decade of lessons. 19 Analysts forecast cocoa prices stabilizing at $6,000 per tonne medium-term, giving Uganda a window to build processing capacity. 4 However, challenges like climate change, EU regulations, and currency risks (similar to Ghana’s Cedi appreciation) loom large. 7

With 72,369 hectares under cocoa and robust support programs, Uganda is well-positioned. 6 By 2030, processed exports could add billions to GDP, uplifting 10,000 households. The key lies in coordinated efforts between government, private sector, and farmers.

Conclusion

Rising cocoa prices have illuminated Uganda’s potential as a cocoa powerhouse, but exporting raw beans is like selling uncut diamonds—valuable, yet far from its full worth. By investing in processing, strengthening policies, and tapping premium markets, Uganda can transform its cocoa sector into a driver of economic growth. As farmers in Bundibugyo and beyond reap today’s rewards, the nation must look forward, turning beans into bars, butter, and beyond. The time to act is now—let’s make Uganda’s cocoa story one of prosperity, not just potential.

References

  • AInvest: Uganda's Cocoa Sector and the 2025 Production Surge. Link
  • Daily Monitor: The global cocoa market has witnessed a dramatic surge. Link
  • African Exponent: Top 10 Cocoa Producers in Africa 2025. Link
  • ISS Africa: Côte d'Ivoire's cocoa economy. Link
  • J.P. Morgan: Why are Cocoa Prices Falling? Link
  • IndexBox: Uganda's Cocoa Bean Market Report 2025. Link
  • Trading Economics: Cocoa - Price - Chart. Link
  • Selina Wamucii: Cocoa Beans Price in Uganda. Link
  • WorldAtlas: Top 10 Cocoa Producing Countries. Link
  • Acumen: Cocoa Disrupted. Link
  • Nile Post: Uganda's Cocoa Production Surges. Link
  • Report Linker: Uganda Cocoa Industry Outlook 2022-2026. Link
  • Expert Market Research: Cocoa Processing Market. Link
  • IndexBox: Cocoa Prices Rise as Supply Concerns Loom. Link
  • Statista: Cocoa - Uganda. Link
  • SGCIAfrica: Cocoa fermenting box reaps rewards. Link
  • Daily Monitor: Rising cocoa price: Can Uganda do more. Link
  • Maersk: Demand for African Cocoa Worldwide. Link
  • 6Wresearch: Uganda Premium Chocolate Market. Link
  • Uncommon Cacao: What is going on with cocoa so far in 2025? Link
  • Selina Wamucii: Uganda reaps rewards of pricey cocoa. Link
  • Foodcom: The cocoa market at a crossroads in 2025. Link
  • Tridge: Uganda Cocoa Bean market overview 2024. Link
  • The Cooperator News: Bundibugyo cocoa farmers reap big. Link
  • IFPRI: Soaring Cocoa Prices. Link
  • Anang Tawiah: Ghana Cocoa Producer Price in 2025. Link
  • NAADS: Cocoa. Link
  • X Post by @rkkkalungi. Link

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